Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
