Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
